A forecast does not become unreliable because actual cash differs. It becomes unreliable when the difference is not reconciled, explained and reflected in the next decision.
Start from reconciled cash
Record the actual opening balance for the completed period and reconcile the closing balance to the bank. If the roll-forward cannot reproduce actual closing cash, withhold the variance conclusion until the missing movement or classification error is resolved.
Separate amount and timing variance
An amount variance changes the expected economic value of a receipt or payment. A timing variance moves cash between weeks. The distinction matters: a receipt delayed by seven days creates a current-week shortfall and a later-week recovery, while a bad debt may create a permanent gap.
Classify the largest differences as timing, amount, omitted item, duplicated item or classification. Then show whether the variance is expected to reverse and in which week.
Reforecast—do not overwrite history
Preserve the forecast version that management relied on, record actuals against it and create the next forecast version from the latest reconciled position. Rewriting the old forecast destroys accountability and makes forecast quality impossible to assess.
Calculate the funding gap against a buffer
The funding gap is the amount required to keep cash at or above the deliberate minimum buffer. It is not limited to avoiding a negative bank balance. If opening cash is 80,000 and the buffer is 120,000, the immediate gap is 40,000 even if a customer receipt later lifts week-one closing cash above the buffer.
For each scenario, identify the lowest cash position, the first breach and the maximum gap to the buffer. Include the opening position as well as all thirteen week-end positions.
Illustrative worked example: timing variance and the buffer
These figures are examples only. With opening cash of 180,000 and a 100,000 minimum buffer, the week-one forecast is 180,000 + 120,000 receipts − 160,000 payments = 140,000. Actual receipts are 80,000 and payments are 150,000, so reconciled closing cash is 180,000 + 80,000 − 150,000 = 110,000. The 30,000 adverse variance comprises receipts 40,000 below forecast, partly offset by payments 10,000 below forecast.
If 40,000 of the missed receipts is confirmed as delayed into week two, the original week-two view of 140,000 + 100,000 receipts − 150,000 payments = 90,000 must be replaced with a forecast from actual cash: 110,000 + 140,000 receipts − 150,000 payments = 100,000. The updated week-two closing balance meets the buffer exactly, provided the delayed receipt and other assumptions are supported by current evidence. Without that confirmation, the 40,000 should remain a risk rather than be treated as available cash. For a fuller weekly build and roll-forward, see the 13-week cash-flow forecast guide. The Cash Command Centre provides a browser-based way to compare cash scenarios.
Turn the breach week into a decision deadline
The first breach tells management when the consequence appears. The action deadline must be earlier. A new facility may require several weeks for approval and documentation. A collection intervention may need to begin before the invoice is overdue. A supplier negotiation loses credibility if it starts on the payment date.
Attach an owner, due date and evidence of completion to every material cash action. “Monitor collections” is not an action. “CFO to obtain written confirmation of the 250,000 receipt date by Tuesday” is.
Challenge scenarios that cross
Upside should generally preserve at least as much cash as base, and base at least as much as downside, but legitimate scenarios may cross because of timing. Surface the exact weeks and balances when ordering is violated. A crossing path may reveal that an apparently favourable decision brings a payment forward or delays a different receipt.
A useful weekly cash meeting
- Reconcile actual opening and closing cash.
- Review the five largest forecast-versus-actual variances.
- Confirm which timing variances reverse in later weeks.
- Review the lowest cash point and first buffer breach by scenario.
- Decide and assign actions before the decision deadline.
- Publish the new forecast version and preserve the prior version.
What to report upward
The executive or board summary should state the current liquidity status in checked numbers: actual opening cash, minimum buffer, lowest forecast cash, first breach, required liquidity, week-thirteen closing cash and the most consequential assumption. Narrative should explain those facts—not contradict them.
Where the gap requires a board-level funding choice or a change to cash governance, review Executive Compass Advisory for its scope of executive finance and board decision support.
Keep the decision current